In 2025, global export and import balances are being reshaped due to changing geopolitical, logistical, and economic conditions. According to World Trade Organization (WTO) data, world trade volume is projected to grow by only 0.9% this year; this indicates that global trade is progressing considerably slower than in previous years. In this context, there are both opportunities and risks for trade-oriented economies like Türkiye.

Here are some notable opportunities for Turkish companies:

• Improvements in the trade environment between China and the US could lead to supply chain restructuring; Türkiye could be considered as an alternative production and logistics hub.

• Increased investment in logistics infrastructure and the renewed importance of transit trade corridors could create a geostrategic advantage for Türkiye.

• Product diversification can be achieved in European and Middle Eastern markets; "added value" in exports can be increased.

The main risks encountered are:

• Global tariffs and protectionist trends can make it more difficult to compete in exports.

• Supply chain costs (logistics, raw materials, freight) may increase; for example, air cargo rates are still high.

• Factors such as exchange rates, energy costs, and production capacity directly affect exports in the domestic market.

Strategic recommendations for exporters in Türkiye:

• Turning to alternative sources for raw material supply and optimizing inventory management.

• Digitizing logistics processes and increasing supply chain visibility.

• Diversifying market risk by targeting new markets (e.g., South Asia, Africa).

• Increasing export revenue by focusing on high value-added products.

In conclusion, despite the slow growth trend in global trade, geostrategic and logistical advantages still exist for Türkiye. Exporters should both be prepared for risks and properly evaluate opportunities.